Probability theory is important not least because of its relevance for decision making, which also means: its relevance for the single case. The frequency theory of probability on its own is irrelevant in the single case. However, Howson and Urbach argue that Bayesianism can solve the frequentist's problem: frequentist-probability information is relevant to Bayesians. The present paper shows that Howson and Urbach's solution cannot work, and indeed that no Bayesian solution can work. There is no way to make frequentist probability (...) relevant. (shrink)

Why is the average quality of research in open science so high? The answer seems obvious. Science is highly competitive, and publishing high quality research is the way to rise to the top. Thus, researchers face strong incentives to produce high quality work. However, this is only part of the answer. High quality in science, after all, is what researchers in the relevant field consider to be high quality. Why and how do competing researchers coordinate on common quality standards? I (...) argue that, on the methodological level, science is a dynamic beauty contest. (shrink)

Aesthetik und Sozialwissenschaft ist ein unveranderter, hochwertiger Nachdruck der Originalausgabe aus dem Jahr 1895. Hansebooks ist Herausgeber von Literatur zu unterschiedlichen Themengebieten wie Forschung und Wissenschaft, Reisen und Expeditionen, Kochen und Ernahrung, Medizin und weiteren Genres. Der Schwerpunkt des Verlages liegt auf dem Erhalt historischer Literatur. Viele Werke historischer Schriftsteller und Wissenschaftler sind heute nur noch als Antiquitaten erhaltlich. Hansebooks verlegt diese Bucher neu und tragt damit zum Erhalt selten gewordener Literatur und historischem Wissen auch fur die Zukunft bei.

Bayesianism is the predominant philosophy of science in North-America, the most important school of statistics world-wide, and the general version of the rational-choice approach in the social sciences. Although often rejected as a theory of actual behavior, it is still the benchmark case of perfect rationality. The paper reviews the development of Bayesianism in philosophy, statistics and decision making and questions its status as an account of perfect rationality. Bayesians, who otherwise are squarely in the empiricist camp, invoke a priori (...) reasoning when they recommend Bayesian methods - a recommendation that is not justified by their own standards. (shrink)

According to Fisher, a hypothesis specifying a density function for X is falsified (at the level of significance ) if the realization of X is in the size- region of lowest densities. However, non-linear transformations of X can map low-density into high-density regions. Apparently, then, falsifications can always be turned into corroborations (and vice versa) by looking at suitable transformations of X (Neyman's Paradox). The present paper shows that, contrary to the view taken in the literature, this provides no argument (...) against a theory of statistical falsification. (shrink)

This paper considers critical rationalism under an institutional perspective. It argues that a methodology must be incentive compatible in order to prevail in scientific competition. As shown by a formal game-theoretic model of scientific competition, incentive compatibility requires quality standards that are hereditary: using high-quality research as an input must increase a researcher’s chances to produce high-quality output. Critical rationalism is incentive compatible because of the way it deals with the Duhem-Quine problem. An example from experimental economics illustrates the relevance (...) of the arguments. (shrink)

In evolutionary models of indirect reciprocity, reputation mechanisms can stabilize cooperation even in severe cooperation problems like the prisoner’s dilemma. Under certain circumstances, conditionally cooperative strategies, which cooperate iff their partner has a good reputation, cannot be invaded by any other strategy that conditions behavior only on own and partner reputation. The first point of this paper is to show that an evolutionary version of backward induction can lead to a breakdown of this kind of indirectly reciprocal cooperation. Backward induction, (...) however, requires strategies that count and then cease to cooperate in the last, last but one, last but two, … game they play. These strategies are unlikely to exist in natural settings. We then present two new findings. (1) Surprisingly, the same kind of breakdown is also possible without counting. Strategies using rare golden opportunities for defection can invade conditional cooperators. This can create further golden opportunities, inviting the next wave of opportunists, and so on, until cooperation breaks down completely. (2) Cooperation can be stabilized against these opportunists, by letting an individual’s initial reputation be inherited from that individual’s parent. This ‘inclusive reputation’ mechanism can cope with any observably opportunistic strategy. Offspring of opportunists who successfully exploited a conditional cooperator cannot repeat their parents’ success because they inherit a bad reputation, which forewarns conditional cooperators in later generations. (shrink)

Poppers Logik der Forschung steht für eine erhebliche Problemverschiebung in der Wissenschaftstheorie, von der Logik der Forschung zur Verfassung der Wissenschaft. Popper sieht die Methodologie als eine Institution, als ein Regelsystem für die Akzeptanz oder Verwerfung von Theorien und Beobachtungsaussagen. Dieser immer noch wenig beachtete institutionelle Aspekt von Poppers kritischem Rationalismus ist zum einen für die Interpretation der methodologischen Regeln von Bedeutung. Zum anderen wirft er ein neues Problem auf: Kann sich eine solche Methodologie als Verfassung der Wissenschaft etablieren? Eine (...) institutionenökonomische Analyse des wissenschaftlichen Wettbewerbs zeigt, dass eine notwendige Bedingung dafür erfüllt ist: die Methodologie des kritischen Rationalismus ist anreizkompatibel, das heißt, es liegt im Interesse eines Forschers, diese Methodologie zu beachten, wenn er erwartet, dass die anderen Forscher ebenso verfahren. (shrink)

It is widely held that falsification of statistical hypotheses is impossible. This view is supported by an analysis of the most important theories of statistical testing: these theories are not compatible with falsificationism. On the other hand, falsificationism yields a basically viable solution to the problems of explanation, prediction and theory testing in a deterministic context. The present paper shows how to introduce the falsificationist solution into the realm of statistics. This is done mainly by applying the concept of empirical (...) content to statistical hypotheses. It is shown that empirical content is a substitute for ‘power’ as defined by Neyman and Pearson. Since the empirical content of a hypothesis is independent of alternative hypotheses, the proposed theory of statistical testing allows for tests of isolated hypotheses. (shrink)

We examine the implications of the US government’s too-big-to-fail policy as it has been applied to banks. Using alternative measures of risk, we compare the risk-taking behavior of 11 TBTF banks, identified by the Comptroller of the Currency in 1984, to a number of non-TBTF banks. We provide both theory and new empirical evidence to support our argument that the TBTF policy leads management to significantly increase risk-taking, with no corresponding increase in performance. While prior studies have considered the effects (...) of the TBTF policy on limited, but risk-related aspects of bank behavior, such as the cost of funds, our study provides direct evidence about the risk-taking behavior associated with the TBTF policy. Our study has important implications for the current political debate regarding the too-big-to-fail policy. (shrink)

This volume demonstrates that their contributions to a material ethics of value are complementary: by supplementing the work of one with that of the other, we obtain a comprehensive and defensible axiological and moral theory.

FOUNDATIONALISM IN PHILOSOPHY n his autobiographical work, The Education of Henry Adams, this I brooding and disillusioned offspring of American presidents confronted, at age sixty, his own perplexity concerning the new scientific world-view that was emerging at the end of the century. He noted that the unity of things, long guaranteed morally by the teachings of Christianity and scientifically by the Newtonian world-view, was being challenged by a newer vision of things that found only incomprehensible multiplicity at the root of (...) the world: What happened if one dropped the sounder into the ab yss-let it go-frankly gave up Unity altogether? What was Unity? Why was one to be forced to affirm it? Here every body flatly refused help.... [Adams] got out his Descartes again; dipped into his Hume and Berkeley; wrestled anew with his Kant; pondered solemnly over his Hegel and Scho penhauer and Hartmann; strayed gaily away with his Greeks-all merely to ask what Unity meant, and what happened when one denied it. Apparently one never denied it. Every philosopher, whether sane or insane, naturally af firmed it. I Adams, then approaching with heavy pessimism a new century, felt instinc tively that, were one to attack the notion of unity, the entire edifice of human knowledge would quickly collapse. For understanding requires the unification of apparently different phenomena. (shrink)

Although Max Scheler (1874–1928) and Nicolai Hartmann (1882–1950) were contemporaries and wrote under the influence of the phenomenological movement, the large differences between their initiatives and achievements in philosophy resulted in scholars rarely reading them together. However, they shared one major concept in ethics, that of material value ethics. This ethics is (1) non‐formal, and involves a profound criticism of Kantian ethical formalism, and (2) is founded in a phenomenology of the values themselves, that its, the content, available in intuition, (...) of such values as trust, utility, friendship, or even the Aristotelian virtues. The present article seeks to uncover a latent harmony and consistency in the two men's material value ethics, and considers the possibility of its recovery for contemporary virtue ethics. (shrink)

One rationale policy-makers sometimes give for declining to fund a service or intervention is on the grounds that it would be ‘unaffordable’, which is to say, that the total cost of providing the service or intervention for all eligible recipients would exceed the budget limit. But does the mere fact that a service or intervention is unaffordable present a reason not to fund it? Thus far, the philosophical literature has remained largely silent on this issue. However, in this article, we (...) consider this kind of thinking in depth. Albeit with certain important caveats, we argue that the use of affordability criteria in matters of public financing commits what Parfit might have called a ‘mistake in moral mathematics’. First, it fails to abide by what we term a principle of ‘non-perfectionism’ in moral action: the mere fact that it is practically impossible for you to do all the good that you have reason to do does not present a reason not to do whatever good you can do. And second, when used as a means of arbitrating between which services to fund, affordability criteria can lead to a kind of ‘numerical discrimination’. Various attendant issues around fairness and lotteries are also discussed. (shrink)

The translator of Scheler’s essay, “On the Rehabilitation of Virtue,” presents an account of the context of this essay in Scheler’s work and of its relevance to his concept of the ordo amoris and to his critique of Kant. The translator discusses the intended audience of the essay, its moral purpose, and the method of its procedure. The postscript further reflects on the essay’s central themes of humility and reverence, suggesting avenues for a critical assessment of Scheler’s conclusions. It ends (...) with some reflections on the contemporary value of Scheler’s contributions in this essay to a historical and philosophical understanding of the conflict between science and religion. (shrink)

Der Philosoph Frane Petrić , widmet einen bedeutenden Teil seiner Studien über Ontologie und Kosmologie, insbesondere in seinen Hauptwerken Discussiones peripateticae und Nova de universis philosophia, einer höchst originellen Untersuchung des Lichtes und der Zeit, zwei Konzepten, die auch in Einsteins „Zur Elektrodynamik bewegter Körper“ eine wichtige Rolle spielen. Bei der Gegenüberstellung der Konzepte dieser zwei Philosophen kommt ihre Verwandtschaft in jedem der erwähnten Systeme zum Ausdruck. Sowohl für Patricius, als auch für Einstein besitzt das Licht eine einmalige, unveränderliche Funktion (...) im Universum. In seiner Analyse der Zeit und mit ihr verwandter Konzepte, beispielsweise der Dauer, entwickelte Patricius eine konzeptuelle Struktur, dynamisch genug, um ihre Konsistenz mit Einsteins Analyse von Zeit und Simultaneität erkennbar zu machen. (shrink)

Newly updated study surveys concept of space from standpoint of historical development. Space in antiquity, Judeo-Christian ideas about space, Newton’s concept of absolute space, space from 18th century to present. Extensive new chapter (6) reviews changes in philosophy of space since publication of second edition (1969). Numerous original quotations and bibliographical references. "...admirably compact and swiftly paced style."—Philosophy of Science. Foreword by Albert Einstein. Bibliography.

Max Albert has recently argued that the theory of power indices “should not ... be considered as part of political science” and that “[v]iewed as a scientific theory, it is a branch of probability theory and can safely be ignored by political scientists”. Albert’s argument rests on a particular claim concerning the theoretical status of power indices, namely that the theory of power indices is not a positive theory, i.e. not one that has falsifiable implications. I re-examine the (...) theoretical status of power indices and argue that it would be unwise for political scientists to ignore such indices. Although I agree with Albert that the theory of power indices is not a positive theory, I suggest that it is a theory of measurement that can usefully supplement other positive and normative socialscientific theories. (shrink)

An homage to the men and women of science, and an exposition of Einstein's place in scientific history In this fascinating collection of articles and speeches, Albert Einstein reflects not only on the scientific method at work in his own theoretical discoveries, but also eloquently expresses a great appreciation for his scientific contemporaries and forefathers, including Johannes Kepler, Isaac Newton, James Clerk Maxwell, Max Planck, and Niels Bohr. While Einstein is renowned as one of the foremost innovators of modern (...) science, his discoveries uniquely his own, through his own words it becomes clear that he viewed himself as only the most recent in a long line of scientists driven to create new ways of understanding the world and to prove their scientific theories. Einstein's thoughtful examinations explain the "how" of scientific innovations both in his own theoretical work and in the scientific method established by those who came before him. This authorized Philosophical Library book features a new introduction by Neil Berger, PhD, and an illustrated biography of Albert Einstein, which includes rare photos and never-before-seen documents from the Albert Einstein Archives at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. "What place does the theoretical physicist's picture of the world occupy among all these possible pictures? It demands the highest possible standard of rigorous precision in the description of relations, such as only the use of mathematical language can give" -Albert Einstein, "Principles of Research" Albert Einstein (1879-1955) was born in Germany and became an American citizen in 1934. A world-famous theoretical physicist, he was awarded the 1921 Nobel Prize for Physics and is renowned for his Theory of Relativity. In addition to his scientific work, Einstein was an influential humanist who spoke widely about politics, ethics, and social causes. After leaving Europe, Einstein taught at Princeton University. His theories were instrumental in shaping the atomic age. Neil Berger, an associate professor emeritus of mathematics, taught at the University of Illinois at Chicago in the Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science department from 1968 until his retirement in 2001. He was the recipient of the first Monroe H. Martin Prize (1975), which is now awarded by the University of Maryland every five years for a singly authored outstanding applied mathematics research paper. He has published numerous papers and reviews in his fields of expertise, which include elasticity, tensor analysis, scattering theory, and fluid mechanics. (shrink)

Vodola, Max On a wet Melbourne evening on Saturday 16 September 1916, Archbishop Daniel Mannix, coadjutor to Dr Thomas Carr, attended the opening of the parish bazaar at St John's Parish, Clifton Hill. Mannix was on his way to another function when he made the unscheduled stop at Albert Hall on Queen's Parade.2 After opening the bazaar, Mannix spoke for a few minutes about an issue of great significance, the proposal by the Hughes Government for compulsory military service. Mannix (...) spoke about achieving an honourable peace without conscription, describing conscription as 'a hateful thing' and opining that 'the present war would not have achieved such disastrous proportions if conscription had not prevailed in Europe'. Mannix insisted that Australia had done her fair share and that conscription in Australia would cause more evil than it would avert.3 In speaking on conscription, Daniel had entered the lion's den. Mannix later reflected that the speech at Clifton Hill was his 'original sin'. (shrink)

Penseur et philosophe, Max Planck a dominé par sa personnalité toute la science moderne. Pour Albert Einstein, il a " doté le monde d'une grande idée créatrice " dont la découverte deviendrait " la base de toute la recherche en physique au XXe siècle ". C'est dans le domaine de la thermodynamique que fit irruption sa découverte révolutionnaire, en 1900, alors qu'il s'intéressait au rayonnement émis par les corps qu'on échauffe et aux propriétés de la matière avec laquelle ce (...) rayonnement interagit: contrairement à ce que supposait la physique classique, les échanges d'énergie entre le rayonnement et la matière ne peuvent se faire que par paquets discontinus, les quanta. Une hypothèse de quantification vis-à-vis de laquelle Planck lui-même exprima la plus extrême réticence mais qui signa l'acte de naissance de la physique quantique. Au terme de sa vie, à l'âge de quatre-vingt-sept ans, l'illustre savant revient une dernière fois sur son oeuvre et nous livre la démarche même de son esprit au travail. Un témoignage inestimable, suivi de quatre grandes conférences, qui furent aussi ses derniers écrits : " Les faux problèmes de la science ", " La signification et les limites de la science ", " Le concept de la causalité en physique " et, tel un testament spirituel, " Science et religion ". (shrink)

English summary: The investigations in this book are on the problem of the relationship between politics and the economy as objects of the political theory and the economic theory. Both theories are part of the Herrschaftswissen as defined by Max Scheler. They are based on a general theory of action. This theory as well as the political and the economic theory which is developed from the theory of action is understood as a system of categories which contains the laws of (...) the fields concerned. Central categories are the categories of power and domination. The political and economic theory are conceived of as the basis of rational action in politics and in the economy. German description: Welche Beziehungen bestehen zwischen Politik und Wirtschaft als Gegenstanden der politischen und der okonomischen Theorie? Hans Albert widmet sich in seinen Untersuchungen dieser Frage. Er bestimmt sowohl die Politik als auch die Wirtschaft als Teile des Herrschaftswissens im Sinne Max Schelers. Sie werden aus einer allgemeinen Theorie des menschlichen Handelns entwickelt, die anthropologisch begrundet wird. Diese wird ebenso wie die aus ihr hervorgehenden Theorien der Politik und der Wirtschaft in ein System von Kategorien gebracht, welche die Gesetzlichkeiten der betreffenden Bereiche enthalten. Zentrale Kategorien sind die der Macht und der Herrschaft. Die politische und die okonomische Theorie werden als Grundlage rationalen Handelns in beiden Bereichen aufgefasst. (shrink)